‘An Alarming State of Affairs’: War on Iran Tightens India's LPG Availability.
The ripple effects of a war being fought nearly 1,864 miles away are now impacting India's homes.
As US-Israeli strikes on Iran hinder energy transports through the vital shipping lane, supplies of kitchen fuel are dwindling across India, forcing restaurants to shorten food lists, close earlier and in some cases close completely.
Social media is awash with video clips showing lines outside cooking-gas dealers across Indian urban and rural areas as anxieties over fuel supplies grow. Commercial LPG users appear the most affected: the most severe shortage is in food service establishments.
"Conditions are critical. Cooking gas simply isn't available," says a representative of the an industry group.
Most food outlets run either on industrial fuel canisters or pipeline-supplied fuel, and the scarcities are now being experienced across the country. "Numerous restaurants have closed - some in northern India, many in the southern region. People are adopting traditional burners and electronic appliances to keep food preparation going."
City-Specific Fallout
In a western metro, local news say up to a fifth of eateries are already operating at reduced capacity as commercial LPG supplies tighten. In the southern cities of Bangalore and Madras, some eateries say their gas stocks have dwindled with little backup. "We can only make coffee and no other dishes - it is truly dismal. Commerce will take a hit," says a restaurant owner in Bengaluru.
Restaurant operators are scrambling to adapt. "Offering lists are shrinking, some are cutting lunch service and operating solely in the evening," an industry representative says, adding that closures are changing as supplies ebb and flow. "A number of eateries in Delhi were shut yesterday - a couple are back in business. It's a changing landscape."
Retailers observe a increase in sales of electric cookers, with some saying they are running out of them.
Authority's View
Yet, the government insists there is no shortage.
India has more than 300 million home fuel subscribers and authorities say stocks are being redirected to households as geopolitical strain from the Middle East conflict impact energy markets.
Roughly a majority of India's LPG is sourced from abroad, and about the vast majority of those imports pass through the Strait of Hormuz, the narrow Gulf chokepoint now largely blocked by the hostilities.
The petroleum ministry says that it instructed refineries to increase LPG output for household consumption, raising domestic production by about a significant margin. Commercial stock is being allocated for critical services such as healthcare and education, while distribution will be "fair and transparent".
"Unnecessary hoarding and stockpiling has been caused by rumors. The standard supply timeline for home fuel remains about under three days," says a senior official.
Spreading Anxiety
Now the concern is spreading beyond kitchens. On digital platforms, a widely shared video from Chennai shows a long, snaking queue of motorbikes outside a fuel station. "Anxiety is palpable," the description reads.
According to data from industry analysts, concerns about India's broader energy security may be overstated.
India imports almost all of its petroleum. Around 50% of its oil purchases - about 2.5 to 2.7 million barrels a day - travel through the passage, largely from Middle Eastern nations.
Even if crude flows through the Strait of Hormuz are hindered, the deficit could be partly offset by higher imports of competitively priced oil from Russia, according to a refinery and oil markets analyst.
Based on maritime intelligence and industry information, incremental Russian crude imports could reach around a significant volume of barrels a day, reducing India's effective shortfall from exposure to the Strait of Hormuz to about a substantial volume of barrels a day.
"A large quantity of Russian oil barrels are currently in transit at sea in the Indian Ocean and, with only two major Asian economies as major buyers, those barrels remain a ready fallback," an analyst noted.
Kitchen Fuel: The Primary Concern
The real vulnerability is LPG, experts note.
India consumes roughly 1 million barrels a day, but produces only a minority share domestically, importing the rest - most of it through Hormuz.
Refineries can tweak operations to extract a bit more LPG, but even a limited rise would only lift domestic supply to about around half of demand, leaving the country significantly leaning on imports.
In short: "Petroleum shortage concerns can be somewhat alleviated through diversification. Refined product supply remains relatively comfortable. LPG availability is the critical issue to watch in the coming weeks."
What may be heightening the panic on the ground is not just limited availability but uneven distribution - and the usual problem of stockpiling.
An industry representative claims opportunistic profiteering.
"Distributors are taking advantage of the situation - black-marketing cylinders and selling them at a premium. In one small town, I heard of cylinders being stockpiled and sold at a premium."
For now, India's oil supplies may be cushioned by worldwide shipping. But in homes across the country, the more pressing concern is simple: how to get the next cylinder.
